A Houdini Act Worth Considering: Implications of a pick up in US Productivity
- The US yield curve has flattened sharply since our 2019 outlook was released lifting the risk that the end of the business cycle is rapidly approaching.
- Other indicators of the business cycle such as credit spreads, the 2-year yield, the Fed’s Loan Officer’s Survey and the Philly Fed survey all suggest the cycle still has some way to go.
- In our 2019 outlook, we lifted the bar further on defence. We shifted overweight Property and added to our overweight in Healthcare, but we also added our exposure to the Tech sector by including TNE.
- One macro scenario that could evolve next year is that US productivity growth lifts.
- An extension to the cycle could be positive for Australia.
Amcor is a packaging company. Co. has the following reportable segments: Amcor Rigid Plastics, which manufactures rigid plastic containers for a range of primarily beverage and food products; Amcor Flexibles, which represents the aggregation of four operating segments of which each manufactures flexible and film packaging for their respective industries; as well as Other/Investments, which holds Co.'s equity accounted investments in the associate AMVIG Holdings Limited (AMVIG) and the joint venture Discma AG (Discma). AMVIG is mainly involved in the manufacture of tobacco packaging while Discma's operations primarily relate to the development and licensing of packaging product development.
Brambles is a supply-chain logistics company operating primarily through the CHEP and IFCO brands. Co. has three segments: Pallets segment, which primarily serves the consumer goods, fresh produce and beverage industries, and sub-divided into three regions: Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific; Reusable Plastic or Produce Crates segment, which serves the fresh produce and food industry and comprising the IFCO RPC pooling business worldwide and the CHEP RPC pooling businesses in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa; and Containers segment, which comprises four business units: Automotive, Intermediate Bulk Containers, Oil and Gas, and Aerospace.
Pact Group Holdings is provider of specialty packaging and manufacturing solutions in Australasia. Co. converts plastic resin and steel into rigid packaging and other products that service customers in different sectors including: food and beverage, personal care, household consumer, industrial and chemical, and materials handling and infrastructure. Co. also provides a range of services including outsourced manufacturing, filling and packing and a range of sustainability, recycling and environmental services to assist customers in reducing the environmental impact of their product packaging and related processes.
Technology One is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation and support of enterprise business software solutions. Co.'s segments are: Sales and Marketing, which is involved in the sales of license fees and customer support; Consulting, which is involved in the implementation, consulting services and custom software development services for large scale, purpose built applications; Research & Development, which is involved in research development and support; Cloud, which is involved in the delivery of cloud hosting services; and Corporate, which is involved in the aggregation of the corporate services functions' costs and revenue, and corporately-funded projects.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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