Aussie Equities Model Portfolio Update
- Australia is in a sweet spot. We sticking to the themes and sector positioning outlined in our 2018 outlook. We still think the ASX200 will rise by around 600pts to 6657pts by year-end on the back of a modest 0.8pt increase in the PE multiple to 16.4pts and increase in EPS of 6%. The earnings upgrade cycle is gathering momentum and both miners and banks are being upgraded, while TLS is unlikely to be a significant drag on the index.
- We still believe Australia can outperform the major markets. Australia is a relatively defensive market, which will be attractive as late-cycle uncertainties lift volatility in global markets. In our view, Australia is positioned around 18 months behind the US, with earnings upgrades due to synchronised global growth only beginning to lift this year. The Banking Royal commission means that other sectors, particularly Mining, will need to do the heavy lifting.
- Good outperformance by staying long growth. Our model portfolio is underpinned by a tilt towards Growth stocks and this has been critical in its strong performance relative to the ASX 200 since last December. During reporting season and the global equity market correction, the portfolio outperformed 2.6% vs 0.6% and this gives us confidence we on the right path. Stay long Growth.
- Sticking to the script but doubling down. We are making no major changes to the stocks in our sector allocation but we are adjusting our portfolio weights to hopefully add more alpha. We move to an active underweight in Banks (-2.5%pts) from Neutral (0.5%pts) in December and increase our active overweight in the Miners (3.7%pts) from (1%pt). We increase our active overweight in Healthcare (2.0%pts) from (1%pt) and increase our underweight in Consumer Staples from -2.0%pts to -2.4%pts. We remain actively overweight Consumer Discretionary (3.3%pts), but with no retail exposure. Similarly, we retain no Diversified Financials, Telcos or Utilities exposures. Our only insurance stock is NHF and we retain an underweight in Real Estate.
Aristocrat Leisure is a provider of gaming solutions. Co. is engaged in the design, development and distribution of gaming content, platforms and systems. Co.'s products and services include electronic gaming machines and casino management systems. Co. also operates within the online social gaming and real money wager markets.
Boral manufactures and supplies building and construction materials in Australia, the U.S. and Asia. Co.'s segments are: Construction Materials & Cement, consisting of quarries, concrete, asphalt, transport, landfill, property, cement and concrete placing; Building Products, consisting of Australian bricks, roofing and masonry, and timber products; Boral Gypsum Joint Venture, which manufactures and sells plasterboard and associated products; and Boral USA, consisting of bricks, cultured stone, roof tiles, fly ash, concrete and quarries. The primary end use markets for Co.'s products include residential and non-residential construction and the engineering and infrastructure markets.
CIMIC Group is a construction company and the contract miner. Co. provides construction, mining, engineering, public-private partnerships (PPP), and operation and maintenance services to the infrastructure, resources and property markets. Co. comprises the following main segments: construction, contract mining, PPP, engineering, Habtoor Leighton Group, and commercial and residential. Co. delivers its services through several companies: CPB Contractors Pty Ltd, Leighton Asia Limited, Thiess Pty Ltd, Pacific Partnerships, and EIC Activities Pty Ltd. Co. operates across the Australia Pacific, Asia, Middle East and Americas regions in the infrastructure, resources and property markets.
Coca-Cola Amatil manufactures, distributes and sells ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s product range includes non-alcohol sparkling, beverages, spring water, sports and energy drinks, fruit juices, iced tea, flavoured milk, coffee, tea, beer, cider, spirits and packaged ready-to-eat fruit and vegetable snacks and products. Co.'s segments include: Non-Alcohol Beverages, which manufactures, distributes and markets sparkling drinks and other non-alcohol beverages; Alcohol & Coffee Beverages, which manufactures and distributes premium spirits, beer and coffee products; and Corporate, Food & Services, which is involved in the processing and marketing of fruit and other food products business.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services including retail, business and institutional banking, funds management, superannuation, life insurance, general insurance, broking services and finance company activities. Co. operates in seven segments, Retail banking Services, Business and Private Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, Wealth Management, New Zealand, Bankwest, as well as International Financial Services and Other Divisions. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$933.1 million and total deposits of A$588.0 million.
Rio Tinto is a mining group based in the United Kingdom and Australia. Co. is engaged in the business of finding, mining and processing mineral resources. Co.'s major products are iron ore, aluminium, copper, diamonds, coal, uranium, gold and industrial minerals (borax, titanium dioxide and salt). Co.'s activities span the world but are strongly represented in Australia and North America with significant businesses in South America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Co.'s operations comprise four principal product groups - Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper and Diamonds, and Energy & Minerals.
Treasury Wine Estates is engaged in viticulture and winemaking, and the marketing, sale and distribution of wine. Co.'s wine portfolio includes wine brands such as Penfolds, Beringer, Lindeman's, Wolf Blass, Stags' Leap, Chateau St Jean, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards. Co. also distributes beer and cider under license in New Zealand and provides contract bottling services to third parties. Co. maintains its operations in four regions: Australia and New Zealand, Asia, Europe, and Americas.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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