EUR 850.00 For Business Accounts Only

Morningstar | BTI Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 22 Apr 2019

The advent of e-cigarettes has created the most significant change in the industry since the 1960s. Early forms of e-cigarettes have existed for a generation, but with the consumer arguably less brand-loyal and more aware of health issues than ever before, the industry is on the cusp of a seismic shift to next-generation products. It seems likely that conventional tobacco will remain the driving force of the industry profit pool for at least the next decade, but Big Tobacco manufacturers are nevertheless placing their bets on the new categories most likely to win share of smokers.To date, British American Tobacco probably has the most hedged position across the emerging categories. Its Vype brand has gained some traction in the U.K., while the acquisition of Reynolds gives it access to Vuse. The company's total 2018 research and development spending of GBP 105 million is well below the $383 million (GBP 295 million) spent by PMI last year, and the $2 billion (GBP 1.6 billion) of capital expenditures its rival invested in its heated tobacco facility in Bologna, Italy. In heated tobacco, BAT's Glo has taken tobacco market share of around 5% in Japan in 2018, although it lags PMI's iQOS. We believe heated tobacco is the category most likely to successfully attract smokers, but we do not regard the first-mover advantage as being sustainable in the long term, and it is possible that BAT will regain share through next generation products over time.BAT has doubled down on the combustible business with its acquisition of Reynolds American. We see Reynolds as an incredibly strong asset in a market with plenty of remaining potential for raising prices, and we view the deal positively from a strategic standpoint. The Newport brand is experiencing volume declines at a much slower rate than the rest of the U.S. industry and retains very strong pricing power in the midsingle digits. Nevertheless, it is this aquisition and the increased exposure to the menthol category that is a key reason for the recent weakness in BAT's stock, and the overhang of potential menthol regulation is not likely to ease in the short term.