Morningstar | UCB Updated Forecasts and Estimates from 19 Mar 2019
No-moat UCB posted EUR 4.6 billion in full-year revenue, up 2% from last year and slightly above our expectations. We don't anticipate any material changes to our fair value estimate of EUR 72 per share, and we remain comfortable with our near-term outlook of single-digit growth driven by Vimpat for seizures and Cimzia for arthritis. Vimpat, with nearly EUR 1.1 billion in sales, broke through to blockbuster status in the second half of the year, and we expect single-digit growth in the near term. Despite the company's diverse portfolio in difficult-to-treat central nervous system disorders, we don't believe the company possesses an economic moat due to a sparse pipeline and upcoming patent losses.Looking forward, we're waiting for FDA approval for midazolam nasal spray for epilepsy, which UCB acquired in 2018. With an orphan drug designation and more convenient than alternative treatment options, we believe midazolam is a promising pipeline candidate for UCB, which suffered a clinical failure in 2018 with dapirolizumab pegol (DZP) for lupus. In addition to midazolam, we're waiting for an FDA decision on Evenity (romosozumab) for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women with high risk of fracture. The FDA originally rejected the drug due to higher cardiovascular risk, but last month, following new data, an FDA advisory committee voted in favor of the drug, with 18 out of 19 votes for approval. While this is not a binding vote, it is promising news for UCB and partner Amgen.
UCB is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on severe diseases in two therapeutic areas, namely central nervous system disorders and immunology. In the area of central nervous system disorders, Co. is focused on advanced Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, restless legs syndrome and epilepsy. In the area of immunology disorders, Co. is focused on rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis, psoriatic arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, juvenile idiopathic arthritis, post-menopausal osteoporosis, systemic lupus erythematosus and immunological diseases.
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