Rapid deterioration of Zijin's flagship mine will hurt margins and returns.
No-moat Zijin Mining’s cumulative nine-month net profit of CNY 1.42 billion, down 16% year over year, was above our expectations due to better margins and higher fair value gains. Thanks to effective cost-cutting measures, the firm’s gross margin improved to 10.5% from 7.7%, a year ago. We increase our 2016-18 earnings forecasts by 10%-62% to take into account the margin improvements. As a result, we raise our fair value estimate to HKD 1.92 (CNY 1.68 per share) from HKD 1.74 (CNY 1.46 per share...
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