2019: The year when Keynesianism is returning
In the United States, the euro zone, Japan, China and worldwide, 2019 is the year of the return of Keynesianism: increasing fiscal deficits, very low interest rates due to even more expansionary monetary policies. Will Keynesian policies in 2019 be effective? This depends on the intensity of the supply constraints. We are now seeing: A low unemployment rate or major hiring difficulties in the United States, the euro zone, Japan, China and worldwide; A capacity utilisation rate that is lower than its historical average, only in Japan and China; Poor cost competitiveness, leading to market share losses in the United States and the euro zone. So the Keynesian policies will perhaps be effective in Japan and China.