2020, the year of difficult decisions for the ECB

In 2020, we can expect in the euro zone: Higher headline inflation and , to some extent, core inflation because of the rise in the oil price and the acceleration in unit labour cost s as unemployment returns to the level of structural unemployment; Weaker growth, due to the rise in the oil price, the impossibility of increasing fiscal deficits any further, and prob ably the end of the corporate investment cycle. It is in 2020 that the ECB will have the liberty to raise its key interest rates. But it will then be faced with the conflict between lower growth and higher core inflation. In addition, it will know that a significant rate hike would lead to a risk of a public debt crisis. So w hat will it do in this complex environment, where it could no longer claim that inflation is too low for interest rates to be raised? Will the ECB be forced to admit that it has to give priority to maintaining fiscal solvency?