Report
Patrick Artus

A recession in the United States?

What are the various factors that could trigger a recession in the United States? Inflation, which would reduce real household income. But unit labour costs are increasing very slowly; A downward correction in asset prices (equities, real estate). But the expansionary monetary policy and very low interest rates ought to stop this from happening; A correction of overborrowing. But US households have deleveraged, corporate profitability is very high and debt interest payments are very low; A fall in corporate investment under the effect of declining profits. But real wages are being outpaced by productivity and the US administration seems willing to cut taxes further. It is therefore very difficult to defend a recession scenario in the United States.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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