Report
Patrick Artus

A self-fulfilling increase in risk perception: A new cause of recession?

The usual causes of recessions are well known : inflation and rising interest rates; excessive debt associated with asset price bubbles; loss of fiscal solvency; balance of payment crises. None of these usu al causes of recession is present currently in OECD countries; could there then be a recession triggered by a new cause: a self-fulfilling increase in risk perception? The initially irrational increase in risk perception would eventually trigger a recession due to the deterioration in financial markets ( caused by the increase in risk perception in financial markets) and the decline in demand for goods and services ( caused by the increase in risk perception by companies and households). This is the greatest concern we have in an environment that is not likely to give rise to a recession.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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