A slow learning curve for financial markets?
Our position has always been that since the second half of 2021, financial markets have been underestimating the level of future long-term interest rates, firstly because of an underestimation of future inflation, and secondly because of an underestimation of future real long-term interest rates. Financial markets are gradually correcting these two underestimates, but they are not yet fully anticipating the higher level of long-term interest rates in the future. Their learning curve for the new economic equilibrium (more inflationary, characterised by a shortfall in savings) is slow.