After the COVID crisis, a positive or negative supply shock?

The COVID crisis has given rise to: Developments that correspond to a positive supply shock: digitalisation, automation, more efficient companies, in some countries a rise in the participation rate; Other developments that correspond to a negative supply shock: rise in commodity and transport prices, in some countries a fall in the participation rate. If what has given rise to a negative supply shock prevails in the long run over what has given rise to a positive supply shock, then there is a risk of lasting inflation and slow growth.