BoJ preview：円安とはいえ、未だマイナスの中立金利は、引き締め策の一時停止を要求している

BoJ preview: A still negative neutral rate calling for pause notwithstanding weak Yen

After the Bank of Japan (BoJ) terminated the key non-conventional monetary policy tools in March, namely the negative policy rate and the yield curve control (YCC), evidence on a strengthening virtuous circle between inflation and wages has been limited. However, real wages -which fell by -1.8% YoY in February - are unlikely to turn positive soon. Furthermore, services inflation excluding imputed rent softened to +2.9% YoY in March from +3.1% YoY (Chart 1). On the other hand, goods inflation remained elevated at +3.3% YoY during the same period on the back of higher food prices and smaller ene...

Election 2024: Tax cut extensions likely; fiscal future shaky

“Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt” Herbert Hoover The defining fiscal policy agenda item up for debate in the 2024 election i s the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). While most of the TCJA will likely be extended, the specifics will depend not only on who wins the presidency, but also the make-up of Congress. In any scenario, budget deficits will remain large, as elected officials refuse to acknowledge the weakening fiscal outlook.