Aluminium Update – August 2018

Aluminium prices are down by almost 20% from their YTD peak and by almost 8% YTD. Much of this drop in prices can be attributed to both the ongoing trade war which has an impact on market perception and consumption. W e believe a retracing is due. More importantly, the scope for stimulus from China presents a meaningful case for upside from these levels, but this is more likely to materialise later in the year. Finally, in our view, the market is too complacent about the prospects for a Rusal return. Although this process is underway, it deserves a higher weighting when considering the impact on prices. Produced with the assistance of [email protected]