Report
Patrick Artus

Are the Federal Reserve and the ECB creating an equity bubble unintentionally or deliberately?

The highly expansionary monetary policies conducted by the Federal Reserve and the ECB (abundant liquidity, negative real long-term interest rates) are leading to abnormally strong rises in share prices. This mechanism may be interpreted in two ways: It is unintentional: the central banks are conducting a highly expansionary monetary policy with another objective ( to stimulate demand, ensure borrower solvency), and the equity bubble is a side-effect of this policy ; It is deliberate: the central banks are trying to boost share prices to benefit from positive wealth effects and to aid the financial sector. We carry out an econometric and statistical analysis: do stock market indices have a direct effect (inflation, unemployment) on monetary policy decision-making (interest rates, quantitative easing)? We do not find this direct effect , which suggests that effect of monetary policy on share prices is probably unintentional.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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