Report
Patrick Artus

Banking is a very risky business: What consequences?

As the recession is causing a sharp deterioration in the situation of banks, and especially retail banks (we take the example of banks in the euro zone), this means that banking is a very risky business, which is confirmed by banks' share prices and the risk premia on their bonds. Regulation also means that banks must hold very large amounts of capital. All this leads to two major problems: Banks need to find investors who are willing to invest large amounts of capital in a high-risk business. Banks would then normally have to pay investors a very high risk premium, which is not the case; Banks raise funding mainly through risk-free debt, i.e. deposits, which is totally contradictory when taking into account the high risk of banking activity. The "logical" model would be very different from the current model: banks would raise funding mainly in the equity market, not in deposits; they would charge significant intermediation margins that would allow them to pay the necessary risk premium to their shareholders. Deposits would no longer be on banks' liabilities side, but for example on central banks' liabilities side.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch