Before and after the COVID vaccine: Two very different analyses

As long as there is neither a vaccine nor an effective treatment against COVID, economic activity in OECD countries depends on the evolution of the pandemic. There is a clear risk that the increase in the number of cases will cause activity - and therefore equity markets - to fall again in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Once there is a vaccine and effective treatment, the analysis to be made becomes very different: we will have to ask ourselves what will be irreversible and what will be permanently different. This includes: Permanent changes in behaviour (consumption, production, travel); An acceleration of the energy transition; A deterioration in corporate balance sheets. These irreversibilities will prevent a return to the pre-COVID economic situation.