brexit : deal or no deal

Macroeconomic environment In Italy, industrial production fell by 1.8% M / M in July, while unemployment fell to 10.7% in the second quarter. In the United States, the PPI index fell by 0.1% M / M and 2.8% Y / Y in August (after 3.3% in July). The Beige Book points out that the US growth grew at a moderate pace in August and that fears of Commercial war were high. Equities E uropean stocks rise amid optimism on trade issues between US and China . In Europe, Energy outperforms with rising oil prices while Technos and utilities underperform. The VIX stabilizes under the 14%, while the MSCI EM also benefited from the news at the end of the session European. Bond markets / Derivatives Positive session for the European bond with an almost universal fall in rates, except on Italian BTP. In particular, they have been penalized by rumors that the M5S would like to get rid of Giovanni Tri, the Minister of the economy. The yields of the 2-5Y segments thus increased from 1.5bp to 3bp. German yields fell by 1-2bp with a slight outperformance of papers 30 years. The 10-year BTP-Bund spread has ended the session at 254pb. On the US side, UST yields lost as much as 1.5bp. Money markets / Central banks The Eurodollar curve flattened slightly as the Euribor and Libor curves sterling remained almost stable. In the United States, L.Brainard , a member of the Fed, short-term rates could go beyond long-term estimates. The euro basis 3 months stabilized at -12bp. FX Dollar corrected against all G10 currencies, DXY index below of 95. It was mainly the " commo " currencies which rose against the dollar against rebound oil prices. EUR / USD has stabilized just above 1.16 before the ECB meeting. Commodities Brent  has broken above $80/ bbl  today for the first time since May - the main factor supporting the move today is the 5.3mn bbl US crude inventory draw reported by the EIA. More generally, renewed Iranian sanctions (Nov 4th implementation) are having a greater impact than first expected - South Korea has completely ceased imports for example. Hurricane Florence is also providing some impetus.