Report
Patrick Artus

Can a recession be avoided when industry is in recession?

Industry is in recession in the United States, the euro zone, Japan and China under the effect of a sharp decline in household and corporate demand for industrial products and new environmental standards. Is it possible for an economy as a whole to continue to grow and avert a recession if industry itself is in recession? We believe the answer is yes: Industry is quite small, e ven including industry- related services. The countries where this is not the case (for example Germany) are in an economywide recession, but this is not the norm; If the trigger is the shift in demand from industry to services, then there will be a recession in industry but strong growth in services; Services have a very high capacity to create jobs.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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