Report
Patrick Artus

Can Japan legitimately be used as a safe haven?

Japanese financial assets and the yen have been used as safe haven several times since 2010: this happened in 2011 and in early 2012, in late 2015 and in early 2016, in early 2018, in late 2018 and in early 2019. But can the yen (Japan) legitimately be used as a safe haven? This would be case only if: Japan’s economic cycle was decorrelated from the economic cycle of the rest of the OECD or the global cycle; this has not been the case during the major cyclical shocks; The Japanese equity market was decorrelated from those in the other OECD countries; this is not the case; The yen had the characteristics of a strong currency; however, given the significant expansion of the Bank of Japan ’s balance sheet and the fact that it has chosen a 10-year interest rate of between 0 and 10 basis points as its monetary policy objective , the yen rather has the characteristics of a weak currency. So we do not believe that Japan (the yen) can legitimately be used as a safe haven.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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