Report
Patrick Artus

Can the economic problems of France, Italy and Spain be attributed to the 2008-2009 crisis?

A parallel is often drawn between the 1929 crisis and the 2008 crisis: the financial crisis is said to have had such a severe and lasting impact on the economy that it has triggered a social and political crisis and propelled nationalist political parties to power. Can the economic problems of some OECD countries be attributed to the 2008-2009 crisis? We look at the cases of three large OECD countries with high unemployment rate s : France, Italy and Spain. The 2008-2009 crisis: Triggered a banking crisis due to the correction of prior overindebtedness and the prior channelling of credit into real estate, which resulted in a real estate bubble and in an inefficient allocation of savings; Has had residual negative effects on the economy: loss of investment and capital, loss of human capital, durably reduc ing productivity and production capacity. But these three countries also suffer from problems that began well before the crisis and which are un related to it: Weak corporate modernisation; Low labour force skills and inefficiency in the education system; high youth unemployment; As a result, weak productivity gains (except in France) and deindustrialisation; In France and Italy, a tax system that discourages employment. By no means can all the problems currently plaguing France, Spain and Italy be attributed to the financial crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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