Report
Can we already tell whether potential growth will be higher or lower after the COVID crisis?
There has been talk about the uncertainty over productivity gains after the COVID crisis: On the one hand, the fall in investment and in employment during the crisis destroyed productive and human capital, leading to a loss of productivity and potential growth; On the other hand, the acceleration in the digitalisation of the economy and effort s to improve corporate efficiency may have boosted productivity gains. What can be seen today with regard to labour productivity? In the United States, clearly an increase relative to the trend; In the euro zone, in contrast, a fall relative to the trend. Next, t o go from productivity gains to potential growth, we have to look at the trend in the labour supply. Its fall in the United States (not in the euro zone) unfortunately almost fully cancels out the increase in labour productivity relative to its trend.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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