Can we avoid an economic regime of scarcity?
After rising sharply, the prices of many commodities and transport prices have fallen markedly again. Does this mean that OECD economies can avoid the transition to a regime of scarcity, i.e. with inflation, conflict over income distribution and a more restrictive monetary policy? We believe that many mechanisms are driving us towards such a regime of scarcity: The energy transition; The restoration of wage earners' bargaining power; Reshoring; The shift in the structure of demand; Geopolitical tensions and conflicts. It is therefore difficult to believe in a return to a regime of abundance.