Can we explain the level of long-term interest rates in the core euro-zone countries?

In reality, there is no prospect of a recession in the euro zone: inflation remains higher than 1%, unit labour costs are growing by 2% per year: there is no risk of deflation . Yet, the core euro-zone countries’ long-term interest rates are extremely low; how can this be explained? Because banks prefer invest ing in core bonds than deposit ing their excess liquidity at - 0.4% at the ECB; Because institutional investors and non-residents, who fear a recession even though this is very unlikely, are sellers of equities, and therefore necessarily buyers of bonds; Because there is a very low fiscal deficit and a savings surplus in the euro zone; Because confidence in the peripheral countries has not been restored to the point that there is really a n arbitrage between core and peripheral bonds. All this means that there is a decoupling between the real economy and core euro-zone long-term interest rates.