Can we see credible warning signs of a recession in the financial markets?
We will look at the situation in the United States and the euro zone. In the recent period we have seen: Flattening yield curve s; Widening credit spreads; Falling share prices. Are these reliable leading indicators of a recession? Statistical analysis shows that in the United States and in the euro zone, in the recent period: Credit spreads and share prices have been leading indicators of future growth; But not the yield curve slope.