China: Fluctuations in growth around a trend decline
The long-term trend in Chinese growth is for a significant decline, under the effect of: Population ageing; Capital misallocation, which can be expected to curb productivity. But China’s growth fluctuates sharply around this long-term trend, with: Years of pessimism among companies and households marked by capital outflows and weak demand; Years in which growth is boosted by stimulus plans, with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in growth .