Report
Patrick Artus

Could a great rotation take place at the end of an expansion period?

The great rotation is when investors switch from bonds to equities. It normally takes place in economic recovery phases since investors then expect long-term interest rates to rise and companies’ situation to improve . Even though 2019 is a year when the expansion comes to an end (we look at the United States and the euro zone), could we see a great rotation in 2019? That may be the case if: Long-term interest rates remain very low; in that case, the low return on bonds is then not due to a rise in interest rates, as in the usual case of great rotation, but to the fact that bond yields remain low; Corporate profitability remains strong, due to the small increase in labour costs despite the fall in unemployment, and the low level of interest payments on corporate debt, as interest rates are very low. The return on equities is then higher than on bonds, and there may be a great rotation despite the situation where the expansion cycle comes to an end .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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