Report
Patrick Artus

Could inflation return in the United States in the short term?

Many economists, financial markets and households believe that inflation is going to return in the United States. But we do not believe so, for the following reasons: What matters for inflation is mainly the functioning of the labour market and wage growth , not other potentially inflationary factors (population ageing, fiscal deficits, money creation, rising costs in emerging countries). This is shown clearly by the case of Japan; There is no reason why the Phillips curve (the relationship between unemployment, wages and inflation) would be different today in the United States from what it was in 2018-2019. This is not to say that the functioning of the labour market will not change in the long term; D omestic demand stimulus is not inflationary if it is balanced by a deterioration in foreign trade ; Last, the COVID crisis is driving companies to make large cost savings, which is disinflationary.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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