Could the ECB return to a more restrictive monetary policy in 2022?

Given the economic situation, it seems clear that the ECB will maintain a very expansionary monetary policy with monetisation of fiscal deficits throughout 2021. But what will happen in 2022? It is difficult to tell: On the one hand, the ECB will be faced with the determination of Germany and the core euro-zone countries to return to a more conventional monetary policy; the desire to end “fiscal dominance”, where governments are encouraged to keep very large fiscal deficits since they are monetised by the ECB; probably asset price bubbles; protests by savers and weakening of banks due to the very low interest rates; On the other hand, ending public debt monetisation at a time when governments will need to maintain large fiscal deficits (to combat poverty, to finance the energy transition and innovative companies) may trigger a sharp rise in long-term interest rates and a debt crisis in the most fragile countries, such as Italy. So it is important to know who will be the “leader”: the ECB or governments. We see that financial markets currently believe that governments will be leaders and that the ECB will logically maintain its highly expansionary monetary policy in 2022 .