Could there be a “collapse†in China?
There is currently a very significant cyclical slowdown in China, which is being combatted with highly expansionary economic policies. But , looking beyond the short term, could the Chinese economy collapse ? We believe the main risk is that because of the controls on capital outflows, China’s abundant savings must be invested in China. This results in both: A rapid ly rising debt ratio; The financing of inefficient, low-return investments. We therefore find in China considerable debt that has financed inefficient capital , pushing down potential growth and leading to the risk of a financial crisis.