Report
Patrick Artus

Could there be a recession in the euro zone?

The latest economic indicators in the euro zone are clearly negative, and we should therefore start asking the question: could there be a recession in the euro zone in 2019? The negative factors are well known: Cyclical decline in investment and in car purchases; Stagnation of the real wage; Hiring difficulties for companies; Slowdown in global trade; The problem of Italy with the rise in interest rates. But we should not forget the positive factors: The slightly expansionary fiscal policy; The fact that monetary policy remains very expansionary; Companies' very good financial situation; The lack of asset price bubbles; Household deleveraging; The decline in the oil price at the end of 2018. Given th ese support factors, a recession in the euro zone is very unlikely in 2019.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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