Could there be a recession in the euro zone?
The latest economic indicators in the euro zone are clearly negative, and we should therefore start asking the question: could there be a recession in the euro zone in 2019? The negative factors are well known: Cyclical decline in investment and in car purchases; Stagnation of the real wage; Hiring difficulties for companies; Slowdown in global trade; The problem of Italy with the rise in interest rates. But we should not forget the positive factors: The slightly expansionary fiscal policy; The fact that monetary policy remains very expansionary; Companies' very good financial situation; The lack of asset price bubbles; Household deleveraging; The decline in the oil price at the end of 2018. Given th ese support factors, a recession in the euro zone is very unlikely in 2019.