Could there be stagflation in the euro zone in the medium term?
We are not looking at cyclical problems here, but at the euro zone’s medium-term problems. Why should we fear stagflation in the medium term? Because growth can be permanently weakened by the energy transition (due to capital destruction and job destruction), by the continued distortion of the labour market towards unsophisticated service jobs, by the high level of debt in a configuration where interest rates would rise, and by the need to switch to a less expansionary fiscal policy; Because inflation can be permanently increased by the rise in energy prices caused by the energy transition and by the desire to raise the lowest wages. This stagflationary environment, if it were to materialise, would pose a serious problem to the ECB. Its reaction would probably depend on the origin of the additional inflation: mostly energy prices or mostly wages?