Despite its technology sector, the situation of the United States is a concern

E quity market indices in the United States are being held up by the technology sector, which is benefiting from the fallout of the COVID crisis. But when we look at the US economy and not equity market indices, we see a worrying situation : Deterioration in the automotive and aerospace industries, like in the rest of the world; Lasting crisis among shale oil and gas companies; Sharp rise in unemployment, leading to household loan defaults and probably to a banking crisis and to a sharp fall in residential construction; Potential problems financing the external deficit if the euro zone and OPEC lose their external surpluses, which would drive up long-term interest rates. This suggests that the consensus that activity will fall further in 2020 in the euro zone than in the United States may be wrong. It remains to be seen what effect this situation c ould have on the outcome of the presidential election in November.