Do we really believe that the ECB will start raising its interest rates after the summer of 2019?

T he re is no question that the ECB’s current intention is to start normalising its interest rates after the summer of 2019 and then to continue on the path of a gradual normalisation. This prospect is consistent with the economic forecasts made by the ECB, but does not correspond to financial market expectations. But will the state of the euro-zone economy really allow the ECB to normalise its interest rates from the third quarter of 2019? The acute degree of hiring difficulties, the saturation of needs for investment, housing and durable goods and the slowdown in the global economy will significantly curb growth in the euro zone; There is no sign of an increase in wage inflation or in core inflation; The fall in share prices, if it persists, will further weaken the euro-zone economy; If oil price s rise, inflation will be higher but growth will be even lower; if oil prices fall, growth will be higher but core inflation will become very low. All this casts doubt o ver whether the ECB will be able to raise its interest rates from the autumn of 2019.