Report
Does something different happen in the US economy during the final year of a president’s term of office?
We examine whether anything different happens in the US economy (monetary policy, fiscal policy, growth, investment, unemployment, equity market) in the final year of a president’s term of office , distinguishing between: The final year of the first term: 2012 (Obama) 2004 (Bush) 1996 (Clinton) 1992 (Bush) 1984 (Reagan) 1980 (Carter) The final year of the second term: 2016 (Obama) 2008 (Bush) 2000 (Clinton) 1988 (Reagan) We find that, repeatedly: In the final year of a president’s first term of office: Economic policies become more restrictive (and not more expansionary as one might think); Investment is quite vigorous (and not weakened by uncertainty); In the final year of the second term, growth, investment and share prices fall, probably due to an increase in uncertainty.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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