Report
Patrick Artus

Does uncertainty over the economic outlook reduce growth?

It is reasonable to think that uncertainty over the economic outlook: Discourages household purchases of durable goods and housing; Discourages corporate investment and employment; And therefore reduces growth both in the short term and in the long term. We examine whether such uncertainty effects on behaviour are present, using as measure s of uncertainty the dispersion of growth forecasts and the medium-term variability of growth. We find that uncertainty reduces household demand (durable goods, housing) in the United States and the euro zone and employment in the United States. If uncertainty reduces potential growth, which seems to be the case in the United States, then it is understandable that potential growth is lower after recessions and crises.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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