Report
Downside risks for Europe from a drop in global trade
Global trade activity will drop significantly in the coming weeks , as the effect of the coronavirus on economic activity in many parts of the world will become more visible . Consequently, the downside risks for Europe via lower global trade are growing too. In order to get a better sense of these downside risks, we simulate the response of euro area growth to a sharp drop in global trade. The media n forecast in that scenario shows a decline in GDP by 0.6% qoq in Q2 , while it could drop as much as 4% with 5% probability . While th e median forecast still looks manageable, our simulations signify the overall fragility of the economy at this stage.
Provider
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Dirk Schumacher
Other Reports from Natixis
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.