End of the cycle but no recession in the United States and the euro zone: What implications for financial markets?

We believe that the United States and the euro zone are reaching the end of the expansion period, but that instead of there being a recession, there will be a soft landing and growth will fall back to the lower level of potential growth. Looking at the end of past cycles in the United States and the euro zone, we see that they are associated with: An acceleration and then an end to m onetary policy normalisation; An end to the rise in long-term interest rates and a flattening of yield curves; A widening of credit spreads; A rapid rise in share prices; A rise and then a downturn in property prices.