Natixis - Energy prices and inflation: forecasting trends in the euro area

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Natixis

Patricia FLOREZ CABRA

Energy prices and inflation: forecasting trends in the euro area

We forecast the direct impact of oil, natural gas, and electricity prices on headline inflation over the next six quarters based on the oil and gas price forecasts provided by Natixis. According to our model, the contribution of the energy component to headline inflation in the euro area is expected to remain within a range of 0.10 to 0.44 percentage points. The lowest level is projected in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting the recent downward trend in oil prices. This trend is expected to reverse after that, leading to a rise that is likely to peak in the last quarter of 2026.

25/06/2025 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Patricia FLOREZ CABRA

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Energy prices and inflation: forecasting trends in the euro area

Mid-year Outlook 2025 - "The summer will be hot, the autumn too."

Mid-year Outlook 2025 - L’été sera chaud, l’automne aussi

EnBW : EnBW: a defensive play in the utilities sector

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