Report
Patrick Artus

Equity and credit (corporate bond) markets in the euro zone: How should we react to the divergence between the fundamentals (very good) and the situation of financial markets (very poor)?

The fundamentals of the equity and credit markets ( corporate profitability , default risk , bad debts , ratings, debt , outlook for long- term interest rates) are very good in the euro zone. Yet , since the start of 2018, share prices have fallen and credit spreads (as well as risk premia on bank bonds) have widen ed markedly . There is therefore an impressive divergence between the fundamental situation of companies (and banks) and financial market fluctuations. What should we do? It is tempting to recommend investing in equities and corporate and bank bonds at these price levels ; But there are then two risks: additional bad news (Brexit, Italian crisis, geopolitical tensions); a deterioration in the real economy due to a marked deterioration in financial markets. So the question is: what is the direction of the causality? Does it go from the good fundamentals towards financial markets, which then will pick up, or from the financial market crisis towards the fundamentals, which will then deteriorate (due to the wealth loss and the rise in the economy's funding costs)?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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