European Carbon Market Outlook
After steadily shedding value through H2-23, EUA prices have settled in a loose trading range between €50-70/ tonne through H1-24, averaging €60/ tonne through Q1-24 . Lower prices have been driven by very loose short-term fundamentals, with sharp declines in power sector emissions and the industrial sector yet to emerge as a major emissions short. Oversupply has been exacerbated by additional auction volumes under RePowerEU . Despite the bearish short-term balance, downside has largely been protected with a floor around €50/ tonne , supported by expectations for a much tighter mid-term bal...