Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: If macroeconomic factors require zero interest rates, how can the drawbacks of such a policy be avoided?

The ECB reacts to the fact that core inflation remains low and to uncertainties on growth by keeping interest rates very low. But they have many drawbacks (weakening of banks, risk of asset price bubbles, undesirable redistributive effects, increasing number of "zombie" firms) that it must be possible to correct if the interest rate policy is to be able to respond to the macroeconomic situation. So how can these drawbacks of very low interest rates be avoided in the longer term? To restore banks' profitability, their funding cost would have to be lowered (TLTRO at negative interest rates, ECB purchases of bank bonds) or the interest rate on their deposits at the ECB would have to be raised; To avoid asset price bubbles and the redistributive effects they lead to, macroprudential policies (loan-to-value ratios in particular) would have to be used more extensively; To avoid loans to zombie firms being maintained, macroprudential policies should also be used: increase in banks’ regulatory capital or reduction in the loan-to-value ratio for companies with low rating or weak balance sheet ratios or profitability if they are not rated. The important point is that central banks cannot ignore the negative effects of the zero interest rates that they ma intain for macroeconomic reasons.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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