Euro zone: In the event of trouble, the only significant shock absorber would be Germany's fiscal policy, which is not reassuring
We do not believe at all that euro-zone growth will slow down drastically . But let us imagine that we are wrong and that euro-zone growth will decline markedly ; what would be the available " shock absorber "? The ECB pretends that it has considerable leeway; but what is it? The rate cut potential is very limited; it would be very ineffective to resume quantitative easing when long-term interest rates are already zero or negative; Apart from Germany and the Netherlands, public debt ratios are already very high, and we fail to see how there could be another jump in the public debt as from 2008 to 2013; The last remain ing option would then be a switch to a far more expansionary fiscal policy in Germany (and the Netherlands). But would Germany accept such an option? Would it be sufficient?