Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: Is there a robust link between monetary policy and the output gap?

If there is a robust link in the euro zone between monetary policy and the output gap (the gap between actual and potential GDP) , future monetary policy developments are easy to predict: all one would have to do is look at where the future level of GDP lies relative to potential GDP. A statistical analysis confirms that the output gap has a very significant effect on both: The ECB’s choice of interest rate; The choice of monetary base (the central bank money supply). Since the euro zone’s GDP should still be below potential GDP at the end of 2022, the zone’s monetary policy should remain highly expansionary.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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