Report
Patrick Artus

Euro zone: It would be good to rebalance the policy mix, but is it possible?

Since 2012, the euro zone has been suffering from significant excess savings over investment. The policy mix implemented to correct this savings glut has been a highly expansionary monetary policy (zero or negative interest rates) and a slightly restrictive fiscal policy. Since the expansionary monetary policy seems to be ineffective in eliminating the savings glut and since zero interest rates have counterproductive effects (weakening of banks in particular), it would be good to rebalance the euro zone's policy mix towards a slightly more restrictive monetary policy (to move away from zero or negative interest rates) and a more expansionary fiscal policy (which would reduce the excess savings over investment). Is this possible? In a situation where inflation remains low, definitely; but if in the future inflation rose and the ECB reacted sharply to this rise, the additional public debt would be detrimental and would threaten fiscal solvency. So it is possible to rebalance the euro zone's policy mix only if one can be certain that inflation will not return.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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