Expansionary economic policy: Protection but also a risk
Economic policy in OECD countries is expansionary : fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary; monetary policy is highly expansionary. There is an ambiguous relationship between expansionary economic policy and the risk of a recession: On the one hand, the expansionary economic policy protects against a recession ( an expansionary fiscal policy stimulates demand; an expansionary monetary policy keeps borrowers solvent); But on the other hand, if a recession occurs anyway , then because all the economic policy space was used up before the recession, it will not be possible to make economic policies more expansionary, and the recession will be severe. Either a recession is avoided or, if it is not avoided, it is severe.