France: At what level of fiscal deficit would interest rates on long-term government bonds start to truly rise?

In 2019, France’s fiscal deficit will be significantly higher (as a percentage of GDP) than those of the other euro-zone countries, given the fiscal policy that the government has already announced and the increase in the fiscal deficit that will be needed to calm the social crisis (tax cuts, support for low wages, etc.). This raises an important question: at what level of fiscal deficit would France lose its status as a core euro-zone country and be hit by a sharp rise in its long-term interest rate? In the past, the sensitivity of the French/German long-term yield spread to the fiscal deficit gap has been 10 basis points for 1 percentage point of GDP of fiscal deficit, which is low; At present, France is still able to find investors for its government bonds among resident but not non-resident investors . Altogether, this suggests that interest rates on France’s long-term government bonds would rise by only a few basis points in the event its fiscal deficit rose to 3.5% of GDP in 2019.