Report
Patrick Artus

France: Can the demand for increased purchasing power be met?

In France , there is currently strong demand for increased purchasing power (with the idea that it is impossible to "live decently from one’s work"). But it is difficult to see how this demand can be met in the short term without tak ing vary significant risks with the economy: All studies show the very negative effects of an increase in low-skilled labour costs on low-skilled employment (1) ; Income distribution in France has become skewed in favour of wages, which has led to high labour costs relative to the economy’s level of product sophistication and to market share losses; There is a limit to how much the central government budget can finance increases in low incomes: this limit is the fiscal deficit above which investors would star t reacting; in the tax competition environment in the European Union, an increase in the tax burden in France , financing additional government transfer payments , could have very negative effects . It would therefore be courageous to accept the idea that, unless the economic model is completely changed (protectionism, exit from the EU), the short - term leeway for increas ing purchasing power in France is very limited . See for example: "The French Policy of Payroll Tax Reductions" - Y. l ’ Horty , T. Mayer , P. Martin , Les notes du CAE - CAE reports no. 49, January 2019
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

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Analysts
Patrick Artus

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