France: Public deficit at "only" 5.5% in 2024 ?!

The Budget Directorate published the figures for the state budget as of December 2024 on Tuesday, February 4: it stands at € - 156.3 billion, a significant improvement compared to € - 173.3 billion in December 2023. Using data from the quarterly national accounts, we estimate that th e public deficit would reach “only” 5.5% of GDP in 2024 (according to the Maastricht definition ), well below the 6.0% expected by the government in the 2025 draft budget law (though still above the target of 4.4% set in the draft budget law for 2024, presented in September 2023). However, these estimates are subject to revision s when the first estimate of the national accounts of public administrations will be published by INSEE on March 27. If these figures are confirmed on March 27, it will have major implications for the 2025 deficit, requiring less effort to achieve the target of 5.4% set by the Bayrou government in the draft finance bill for 2025 presented on Monday, February 3.