France: Q&A on snap general elections

French snap General elections will take place on June 30th and July 7 th , three weeks after President E. Macron announced the dissolution of the N ational A ssembly following disappointing results of his party at the European elections. While the outcome of the election remains highly uncertain, the polls point to the emergence of three blocs: the far right (‘ Rassemblement National’), le ‘Nouveau Front Populaire’ (New Popular Front, a coalition composed by different left parties), and the center group composed by President E. Macron's party and its allies. Thus, our baseline scenario consists of three blocks with a relative majority for the Rassemblement National, but with limited room for more fiscal impulse. Some other scenarios are also explored in this focus, which not listed in order of probability, include a relative majority for the presidential party and its allies, an absolute majority for the far-right party, and a relative majority for the left-wing coalition. It should be noted that n o block is asking for Frexit . We explore different programs and their potential market impacts in this focus.