France: What consequences of the immediate election ban for 5 years of Marine Le Pen?

Marine Le Pen , who is the National Rally leader and among the favorites for the next presidential election in 2027, was found guilty of embezzling European Union funds on March 31th. S he was sentenced of an immediate election ban for 5 years, meaning she will no longer be able to run for the next presidential election in 2027 . Marine Le Pen has already announced that she will appeal the verdict , hoping to be able to run in the 2027 presidential elections , but t he path is narrow . The consequences of this judgment on the French political landscape are still difficult to predict, but recent polls suggest Marine Le Pen's ineligibility for the next presidential elections would not be a disadvantage for the National Rally . An initial poll carried out after the judgment showed that 35% to 36% of voters would vote for Jordan Bardella , the president of the National Rally , far leading the first round of the next presidential elections. Does this judgment change our view on OATs? We keep our 10Y OAT-Bund target at 70bp unchanged for the end of the year , with the risk of snap elections after the summer and uncertainties surrounding the 2026 budget putting the spread at 75-80bp.